Control+Risk

=18.0 Control Risktoc=

This section covers the topic of topic of planning, tracking, and resolving risk in the project plan. We have to take risks serious at the beginning stage of our project to ensure that it succeeds on time. There are activities that are associated with controlling risk and I will cover them in the upcoming sections.

18.1 Develop Risk Resolution Alternatives
You have to find creative ways to resolve risk. There’s more than one way to solve a particular risk, and it would be wise to have alternative methods just in case the initial solution doesn’t work. The goals that you’ve set and the risk should be prioritized. The Book uses the example of a team that is trying to win the ABC proposal. The team met to address the technical design risk. Their evaluation criteria were cost, schedule, performance, functionality, reliability, flexibility, and expandability. The team then assigns each individual to develop risk resolution alternative for the proposal team to review.

18.2 Select the Risk Resolution Strategy
You have to set a strategy when trying to resolve a risk. You will not be successful if you try to resolve a risk without having a way planned out to go about it. A strategy could be to improve analysis or buy addition hardware if the risk is that the hardware could fail. Each strategy should have an approach to resolving the risk. When dealing with a strategy to resolve risk, you have to consider the following factors:
 * Complexity- Search to find if any of the issues are connected. When you have issues that are connected, the strategy will be complex, since resolving one will affect the other. An example could be changing out from a high-voltage power supply to a low-voltage power supply, the other hardware that are integrated with the power supply will be affected, and one might need the high-voltage power supply to function.
 * Uncertainty- not knowing if you are using the right strategy. Using the wrong strategy could be considered a risk also.
 * Multiple Objectives- You have to review your goals and make sure that none of your goals are conflicting.
 * Different perspective- You should search and look for the possibility of other alternatives. Having more alternatives give you different way to solve the problem.

18.3 Develop the Risk Action Plan
After knowing the approach to resolving the risk and you already know what the risk is, one of the team members should document the risk resolution strategy and the recommended action plan. The risk action plan must be reviewed by the decision makers. The team that’s in competition for the ABC proposal developed a risk action plan based on their risk resolution strategy.

18.4 Monitor Risk Status
After developing a risk action plan, you have to establish a trigger that would monitor the risk. The trigger should be set in a certain amount of time. That time should be enough for you to take action against the risk without it being too late.

18.4.1 Send Notification Triggers
When the triggers are set, there must be a way for the team members to know that. An email notification is one way to monitor when a trigger is activated.

18.4.2 Report Measures and Metrics
Measures and metrics are what tell you what the risk status is. Risk measures are subjective and data that is used to indicate the level of project risk. The Objective data are actual counts of items like the number of risks identified. The Subjective data are not actual data; they are based on what the team belief of a condition is. Both data provide a check and balance method that provides project visibility. Metrics are the quantitative results of a measure taken by use of a measurement process. The metrics are only as good as the data behind them, if the data are wrong, the metrics are wrong also. You should use consistent metrics throughout your organization so that you could see where improvement is needed. Examples of risk metrics are:
 * Risk Forecast- uses data to predict the probability of the status of the project, whether it’s in the right direction, or if it’s going in the wrong direction.
 * Risk Index- rolls up the risk being monitored so that you can know whether or not you need a more rigorous plan to resolve the risk.
 * Risk Management ROI- is a chart that grows as project risks are resolved.

18.5 Execute the Risk Action Plan
When a trigger is activated, you have to execute the risk action plan that you already have in place. This helps resolve the risk at the appropriate time. The importance of the triggers is that they let you know when to execute your risk action plan.

18.6 Take Corrective Action as Required
If the risk action plan that’s executed has an unexpected outcome, you can take a correction action to resolve the problem Corrective action and risk management differs. A corrective action is a specific procedure to address a specific problem, where risk management is a general procedure to resolve a risk. Corrective action starts when risk management ends. Risk management ends when what your plan fails. You still have the ability to manage the risk, you just have to take the corrective action needed to resolve the problem.

Questions and Answers
I am going to write a five point scenario on the importance of preventing cavities:
 * 1. Write a progressive five-level scenario that illustrates the importance of prevention in daily life.**

//Scenario 1: Do nothing.// I can basically keep going like I am now and ignore everything. If I don't see any cavities then they must not exist. The consequence could be paying money to get root canals or get my teeth filled.

//Scenario 2:// Stop eating sweets. I can stop eating sweets and food that can cause cavities, but that doesn't guarantee that I will not get cavities. Scenario 3: I can start using tooth paste with fluoride. Fluoride helps build your teeth and can help with cavities. This would work if I don't already have cavities, fluoride can't rebuild your teeth, it can only help make a healthy tooth stronger.

//Scenario 4:// I can rely on the dentist to floss my teeth during the two free cleanings that I get per year. The semi annual dental trips are a necessity in fighting germs and keeping my teeth clean plus they floss them during the process. The only problem is they only do it twice a year, that's not going to get it done, it might slow the cavities down, but it's not going to be enough to keep me cavity free. I am still going to get cavities but it would just slow the process down a bit.

//Scenario 5: Preventive.// I can floss at home and use tooth paste with fluoride in between the semi-annual dental visits. That will ensure that my teeth are healthy and cavity free.


 * 2. Explain how a risk scenario removes uncertainty.**

A risk scenario helps you to visualize the risk and also see the consequence of each of the scenario. If I had a power supply issue, I can use a risk scenario to figure out what would happen if I don't fix the problem and the consequences that are attached to my decision. Not only it can help resolve the risk, it can also help prevent the risk. The whole point of the risk scenario is prevention. Uncertainty is not knowing, if you know how to prevent something from happening, you pretty much dealt with all of the uncertainty of that situation.

The factors that make decisions difficult are:
 * 3. Explain the factors that cause decisions to be difficult.**
 * **Complexity**- Search to find if any of the issues are connected. When you have issues that are connected, the strategy will be complex, since resolving one will affect the other. An example could be changing out from a high-voltage power supply to a low-voltage power supply, the other hardware that are integrated with the power supply will be affected, and one might need the high-voltage power supply to function.
 * **Uncertainty**- not knowing if you are using the right strategy. Using the wrong strategy could be considered a risk also. The risk scenario helps diminish uncertainty by laying out the consequences for each scenario.
 * **Multiple Objectives**- You have to review your goals and make sure that none of your goals are conflicting. Conflicting goals are counterproductive.
 * **Different perspective**- You should search and look for the possibility of other alternatives. Having more alternatives give you different way to solve the problem.

Yes, I do think it is important to go through all seven risk resolution strategies for a given risk because you need to know everything that you can about the risk before you can make a decision on which one of the seven resolution strategies would not be affected. The best way to go about it, is to rank all seven resolution strategies, and then organize them on a list, associate raking with each resolution based on its impact or importance. From that list you must decide which risk resolution are you going to use your resources toward, or whether some of the risk resolution strategies would not affect your project. Using scenarios can help with deciding what risk resolution strategy you need to focus on.
 * 4. Do you think it is important to think through all seven risk resolution strategies for a given risk?**

**5. When would you use a combination of risk resolution strategies?** I would use a combination of risk resolution strategies if they have related impact. For example, you can have a resolution strategy to upgrade a power supply in a component, and another strategy to let the customer choose to upgrade to the new power supply for a price, both of these strategies could be combine, you can have the customer pay for the upgrade to the power supply, this option would make the customer pay for the cost.

I would use the following triggers to execute my risk action plan: Risk are dynamic, it changes all the time, and if you are assuming that everything is okay, you might be in for a big surprise. Measures and Metrics are tools that you can use to find the current and predict the probability of the future status of your project. Metrics and Measures are like the heart rate monitor of our project. Training is very important so that people would know how to effectively use the Metrics and Measures in there project.
 * 6. What triggers might you use to provide notification to execute a risk action plan?**
 * 1) Periodic event – sends notification for activities, those are scheduled events like monthly reports.
 * 2) Elapsed time – sends notification for dates. Those are calendars, and etc…
 * 3) Relative variance – notification outside a range of acceptable values. It monitors the actual value versus the quantitative target value and makes sure that the actual value is within a threshold of the target value.
 * 4) Threshold Value- sends notification for values that cross a preset threshold. Makes sure that the actual value does not supersede the threshold value, that is very important when it comes to electronic devices.
 * 7. Discuss the importance of training in risk management measures and metrics?**

Corrective action is when the risk management plan gives you an unexpected result. It is very important to be flexible in a way that if one thing does not work, it's not the end of the world. Using a real world example, The oil leak in the gulf is one in need of corrective action. It seemed like they had one plan to cap the oil leak and when that didn't work, all the other ideas are just educated guesses or thing that they think might work, you can tell that they did not have alternative resolution strategies or any corrective action plan if their original plan did not work.
 * 8. Explain the significance of corrective action when you encounter unexpected out-comes?**

When I have the ability to manage risk, I will diversify my decisions to where i will work on additional risks and take on additional risk for potentially higher returns. The business world is about making money, if you are not making money, you are losing money. There's is a saying that the higher the risk, the higher the reward. You don't succeed in life by not taking risk. I would use my risk management training to limit lost or resolve the additional risks.
 * 9. Once you have the ability to manage risk, what would you do?**

I do think risk is like fire. If you don't prevent it, you will get burned, it is that simple. Another way they are similar is that when a fire does breakout, you need a way to contain it, just like you need a way to manage risk. Maybe if people look at risk like they look at a fire, they would show it the proper importance when starting a new project. Just like installing a fire alarm in every room, you need to have triggers that let you know when something bad is going to happen in your project.
 * 10. Do you think risk is like fire?**